Illinois State Preview

Every True Son is proud to debut its first ETS Podcast.

This week, the ETS Podcast comes to you in lieu of a typed preview.

Enjoy!

Prediction Post

So I slacked off for this one, but let me get straight to the point:

48-24, Missouri.

Spread: Missouri (-20.5): Mizzou covers.

MVP = Jeremy Maclin

Unsung Hero = Chase Patton

Thoughts?

Browsing the Media Notes

In lieu of a Q&A with a Western Michigan blogger, I defaulted to the next best thing: Western Michigan propaganda, er, PR game notes.

-- Missouri is WMU's third BCS conference opponent. The Broncos lost to West Virginia, 62-34, and to Indiana, 37-27.

-- In the all-time series between the two teams, Missouri is 1-0 against WMU, taking a 48-34 win in Columbia back in 1999.

-- Four WMU football team employees have ties to the Tigers. Former All-Big 12 lineman AJ Ricker, graduate assistant Chris Tabor, and Missouri graduate Kyle Blecha all serve on the staff of head coach Bill Cubit, who I'm sure most recall as Mizzou's co-offensive coordinator in 2000.

-- The last time WMU started 0-2 was 2005, when the Broncos responded by taking seven of their last nine games.

-- Opponents are outscoring WMU 59-21 in the first two quarters of games. Facing Mizzou's quick strike offense will likely not help that cause...

-- The Broncos are currently riding a 28-game turnover streak. To the contrary, Chase Daniel recently set the Big 12 record for most consecutive passes thrown without an interception, having thrown 235 passes to best the 205 set by Texas A&M's Reggie McNeal. Daniel is 36 passes away from the NCAA record, held by the immortal Trent Dilfer.

-- WMU is among the bottom in the MAC in the following categories: rushing offense, rushing defense, total defense, scoring defense, punt returns, turnover margin and sacks allowed. Then again, playing West Virginia tends to extrapolate those numbers a bit.

-- MU only attempted 23 passes in the 1999 game against Western Michigan. Don't be surprised if Mizzou attempts 23 passes in the first half alone in 2007.

-- On average, WMU is being outrushed by opponents, 268-31. No, that's not a typo.

-- When I went and did the math, the difference in capacity between Faurot Field (68,000) and WMU's Waldo Stadium (30,000) is greater than the enrollment at either school. I refuse to make a "Where's Waldo" pun here.

-- As great as the news is that the Tigers survived two BCS opponents away from home to open the season, here's a little more food for thought: Mizzou has won 8 of its last 10 home openers and has won 72 percent of home openers since 1980. Gary Pinkel is 4-2 in home openers, averaging a 36-point margin of victory in the four wins.

Ole Miss Preview

With gameday rolling around faster than you can say "a bully for Ol' Mizzou," I've taken a brief look at the Ole Miss Rebels before their date in Oxford this Saturday.

When Mizzou has the ball:

The Week One stories are almost too similar between both teams defenses. The Ole Miss defense was spotted a huge third quarter lead against Memphis (23 points, compared to the 24 Mizzou was spotted against Illinois) that the unit proceeded to nearly cough up. It wasn't until Martin Hankins pass on a two-point conversion attempt to tie fell incomplete that the Rebels escaped 1-0.

Depending on your view of defensive success, Ole Miss should either be condemned or congratulated for the efforts of its defensive unit against Memphis. The squad surrendered 467 yards of total offense, including 343 yards through the air and 30 first downs. If the Rebels let Martin Hankins and a Memphis offense that was 64th in the nation last year do this kind of damage, it may be a long day for the Ole Miss defense on Saturday when Mizzou's eighth-ranked offense from 2006 heads to Oxford.

Individually, only two Rebels - LB Ashlee Palmer and DL Greg Hardy - finished with double digit numbers in tackles. But the true gamebreaker was DB Dustin Mouzon, who turned in a Pig Brown-esque performance in the opener, finishing the game with two picks, a fumble recovery, and a touchdown (see below).

The biggest problem for the Missouri offense, at least one not mentioned above, could be sophomore end Marcus Tillman, a 6-4, 260-pound difference maker who accounted for two takeaways - a pick and a fumble recovery - against Memphis.

But Ole Miss is an SEC team, and never underestimate the speed of any SEC defense. When all is said and done though, I do believe Mizzou will pass with ease against Ole Miss. Expect more of the same four- and five-wide sets, as well as more outs, hooks, and bubble screens than the Rebels will know what to do with.

When Ole Miss has the ball:

At first glance, the Ole Miss QB situation seemed shaky at best, but QB Seth Adams was extremely effective in the win over Memphis. Adams completed 19 of his 30 attempts for 201 yards, one touchdown and no interceptions. Ed Orgeron and the Ole Miss coaches seem content to keep the reins on Adams, as his long completion of the day last Saturday went for only 23 yards. Adams can not single handedly beat the Tigers, but his ability to avoid mistakes can put them in one hell of a spot.

But the one man who CAN single handedly beat Mizzou is RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis, a 5-11, 225-pound back who Missouri was fortunate enough to contain last season. In Columbia in 2006, Green-Ellis got the ball 16 times for a total of 69 yards. Green-Ellis finished a yard shy of 1,000 in 2006, turning in 100-plus yard efforts against Memphis, Georgia, Vandy and Northwestern State last year. He carried 23 times for 79 yards last week, but the Missouri run defense appears ready to turn every opposing running back into the second coming of Barry Sanders.

Missouri's chances for an SEC road win may directly correlate to two things that were horribly absent against Illinois: the ability to stop the run, and the ability to wrap up and finish tackles. Ole Miss' offense itself turned in only 10 of Ole Miss' 23 points last week, with the other 13 coming as a result of a 0-yard blocked punt return and a 99-yard interception return. If Green-Ellis gets loose, Ole Miss could keep Mizzou's offense off the field and keep both team's offensive numbers down. But if Missouri gets ahead and the Rebels are forced to abandon the run, consider this one over.

Special teams:

Again, Wolfert can somewhat serve as the ultimate trump card. But even if Wolfert was average, at best, he may still be better than Ole Miss PK Joshua Shene, who missed a 28-yarder and an extra point last week. From a punting standpoint, Ole Miss P Christian Albarracian averaged 47.7 yards per kick last week, including dropping one of his three punts inside the twenty. He also kicked off and averaged 52.6 yards per kickoff.

Missouri's punting conundrum continues, however. Adam Crossett's ridiculously strong leg is once again being minimized by several different factors:
- Poor long snapping
- Lack of protection
- Poor blocking/playcalling between max protect and max coverage
- Inability to control the ball on short-range kicks

Intangibles, gut feelings and instincts:

Does this game have all the makings of a "Missouri's ego gets inflated and overlooks an underrated team" game? Let us count thy ways:
- Road game? Check
- BCS conference opponent? Check
- Decent running game? Check
- Opponent wanting revenge? Check
- Cautiously optimistic fan base? Check
- Missouri team with high expectations? Check

The Spread: The line, not the offense:

Lines have fluctuated between 5 and 6 points in Mizzou's favor on the road. To make things easy, we'll agree the line is set at Mizzou -5.5.

Not that ETS "condones" gambling or anything, but ETS says take Mizzou to win by more than 5.5 in Oxford.

The nominations:

Missouri MVP: Chase Daniel (Cop out answer? Hell yes, it is)
Ole Miss MVP: BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Missouri Unsung Hero: Sean Weatherspoon
Ole Miss Unsung Hero: Marcus Tillman

Write it down (prediction time):

Missouri defeats Ole Miss, 31-17

OVER

Photos courtesy: ViewImages, Sarah Becking, Helmet Project

Illinois Preview

I was unable to find a willing Illini blogger to participate in a Q&A session, so I'm going to try to fly solo on a Mizzou-Illinois preview for this Saturday.



When Mizzou has the ball:

Here's the good news for Illinois: Brad Smith is no longer a Tiger.
Here's the bad news: That may make the Missouri offense even more dangerous.

Illinois fans are quick to claim that their defense is well-adjusted to spread offenses, having seen the likes of Purdue and Northwestern in conference play. In 2006, the Boilermakers averaged about 22 yards and four points less than the Tigers. The Wildcats weren't quite as effective, averaging over 100 yards and 15 points less than Missouri. To put it lightly, Illinois has not seen the likes of the 2007 Missouri offense.

As much as Tiger fans are preparing for a Texas Tech-style air raid against Illinois, expect coach Gary Pinkel to try to establish Tony Temple and the ground game early for a variety of reasons, including:

-- Try to find Temple's magic from the season finale at the Sun Bowl last year, when he rushed for 194 yards and 2 TD
-- Test the knee injury under true game situations
-- See what kind of playing time will be necessary from Marcus Woods, Earl Goldsmith and Jimmy Jackson
-- Most importantly, keep the Illini off balance, and unable to zone blitz the living hell out of Chase Daniel

Additionally, Mizzou supporters seem to be overlooking Illinois' experience on the defensive side of the ball, spearheaded by a solid group of linebackers led by MLB J Leman, who leads ETS to believe a Missouri player needs to go by first initial only as well. As a unit, Illinois' defense combines for only four less starts than Mizzou's heralded offense.

Inside, DL Chris Norwell and David Lindquist manage to fly under the radar to anchor a moderately impressive defensive line. In the secondary, the cover ability of the Illini - on the half of the field not covered by Vontae Davis - is extremely questionable. Illinois' safeties, Kevin Mitchell and Justin Harrison, are primarily known as hitters, not center fielders.

As long as Missouri can feign balance and open up seams for its playmakers in the slot (read: Maclin, Alexander, Coffman, Rucker, etc.), the Tigers shouldn't have too much trouble moving the football. But if the Tigers become one-dimensional, don't underestimate Leman and Co.

When Illinois has the ball:

And so the great enigma returns for year two: Will the Juice be turned loose in 2007, or will he complete less than 40 percent of his passes again?

QB Juice Williams returns from a freshman season that is extremely tough to decipher. As a freshman, Williams completed 39.5 percent of passes, threw 9 TD and 9 INT and was sacked nearly twice a game despite his highly regarded elusiveness. Add in 5-star WR recruit Arrelious Benn, and coach Ron Zook has the makings of another Florida - namely a raw, talented team he has no idea how to coach.

But as much talent as the Illini claim to have through the air, their best chance to beat Missouri lies in the hands - and legs - of RB Rashard Mendenhall. Mendenhall is a tough, between-the-tackles runner that can exploit a Missouri D with well-understood soft spot up the gut. That said, the Tiger D-Line will have much to prove this year beginning against Illinois, and it should be interesting seeing what kind of impact a healthy Ziggy Hood can have on the Mizzou defense.

The most interesting match-up (according to ESPN.com), although it may never surface head-to-head, is the battle of true freshmen: Benn and Mizzou CB Carl Gettis. The following is Scouts, Inc.'s thoughts on the matchup:

"Rarely do two freshmen have the kind of impact on a game that these two should have on this one. Gettis has the quick feet and explosiveness to develop into a quality starter but he has two weaknesses that Benn has the tools to exploit. First off, he doesn't have elite size. Benn can use his 3-inch height advantage to gobble up any jump balls and his 15-pound weight advantage to shield Gettis from the ball when he isn't able to separate from the coverage. Secondly, Gettis doesn't have elite speed. Benn, on the other hand, shows a second gear when tracking the ball and has the body control to make spectacular catches downfield. It's also worth noting that most of Gettis' playing time at the high school level came at running back rather not on defense. As a result, he is still working on his footwork and he's vulnerable to getting caught out of position."

One other development to look for is the development of a pass rush by DEs Strkyer Sulak and Tommy Chavis. How quickly they progress could hold a MAJOR key to Mizzou's success in conference play.

Special teams:

Mizzou should have the edge across all facets of special teams. K Jeff Wolfert is one of the Big 12's top two kickers, ranking right next to Oklahoma's Garrett Hartley. P Adam Crossett has had, according to all reports, one of the best camps of any Tiger. Jeremy Maclin and his newly restructured knee could prove to be an amazing threat in the return game, given the new kickoff rules in 2007.

The Illini are riddled with questions on special teams. Zook refuses to commit to a punter (Jared Bosch, Anthony Santella or Kyle Yelton), will start a kicker who missed a 20-yarder in the '06 finale (Jason Reda), and a return unit (Kyle Hudson and Jacob Willis) that ESPN.com calls "mediocre at best."

Intangibles and Gut Feelings:

Head-to-head:
-- Chase Daniel over Juice Williams
-- Mizzou offense over Illini offense
-- Illini defense over Mizzou defense
-- Mizzou special teams over Illini special teams
-- Mizzou confidence over Illini confidence
-- Gary Pinkel vs. Ron Zook: it's like picking which alcoholic father is most likely to let his kids down.

Write it down (prediciton time):

MIssouri defeats Illinois, 38-21

OVER

Photos courtesy: STL Sports, Illinois Loyalty, The BBBQ, CSTV

Season Preview: Big 12 Predictions

Here's how ETS sees the Big 12 playing out:

Big 12 North
1. Missouri (10-2, 6-2)
2. Nebraska (7-5, 5-3)
3. Kansas State (7-5, 4-4)
4. Colorado (5-7, 3-5)
5. Iowa State (3-9, 1-7)
6. Kansas (4-8, 1-7)

Notes:
-- Mizzou takes the North on the strength of a win over Nebraska in Columbia. The Tigers finish 6-2 in Big 12 play with a South loss to either Oklahoma/Texas A&M, and a "Gary Pinkel road loss" to either Colorado/Kansas State. In both sets of games, Mizzou wins one of the two games and drops the other.
-- I seem to be one of the few bloggers outside of Lincoln who thinks Nebraska will win on the road against Wake Forest. Additionally, I may be one of few dropping the Huskers to 5-3 in conference play. The Huskers' schedule is a beating, and I have them slated for three losses in a four-game Big 12 stretch against Missouri, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M and Texas, all of which come in consecutive weeks (a four-game stretch that will send the entire state into full-fledged panic).
-- Iowa State avoids the North cellar by way of a season ending win over Kansas. Kansas avoids the goose egg in Big 12 play with a win over Baylor.

Big 12 South
1. Texas (11-1, 7-1)
2. Oklahoma State (9-3, 6-2)
3. Oklahoma (9-3, 6-2)
4. Texas A&M (8-4, 5-3)
5. Texas Tech (8-4, 4-4)
6. Baylor (2-10, 0-8)

Notes:
-- Texas survives a non-conference date with TCU, beats Oklahoma in Dallas, staves off Nebraska at home, outduels Texas Tech and enters the national championship picture at 11-0 entering a bye week on Nov 17. Then, while Longhorn fans are busy booking tickets to the national title game, Texas A&M's three-headed option attack will once again wear down the Texas defense, upsetting the Longhorns. This time, the Ags do it in front of The 12th Man (don't sue me), and a brutal season has a beautiful ending in Aggieland, as the Aggies effectively ruin a gorgeous picture for Texas.
-- Oklahoma State runs off impressive upset road victories over Nebraska in Lincoln and Oklahoma in Norman, effectively sending Stillwater into, ironically, bedlam. Losses to Texas and Texas A&M cost them a title shot.
-- Texas A&M rides and survives a horrendous schedule. The Ags lose on the road at Miami, lose to OSU at home, turn around and get upset AGAIN in Lubbock, turn around and upset Nebraska in Lincoln, lose in Oklahoma, potentially upset Missouri on the road, and return home to upset Texas. Much like Mizzou teams of years past, I honestly don't know what to make of this team. They will win a few games they shouldn't have, and drop a few they should have won.
-- Holy hell, I don't think I could have landed any harder on the Oklahoma State bandwagon. Mock me if you must - the Cowboys are the team I'm looking towards to reward me for my preseason faith.
-- Waco real estate spoiler: Guy Morriss' house will be available in early-December.

Big 12 Title game
Texas over Missouri

Big 12 Offensive POY
Co-POYs: Colt McCoy (Texas) and Chase Daniel (Missouri)

Big 12 Defensive POY
Reggie Smith (Oklahoma)

Bowl projections
-- Texas: Fiesta Bowl
-- Missouri: Cotton Bowl
-- Oklahoma State: Holiday Bowl
-- Nebraska: Alamo Bowl
-- Oklahoma: Sun Bowl
-- Texas A&M: Insight Bowl
-- Kansas State: Independence Bowl
-- Texas Tech: Texas Bowl
Left out: Colorado, Iowa State, Kansas, Baylor

Season Preview: Big 12 games

With the season opener against Illinois rapidly approaching, I figured it's time to break out the summarized season preview.

Each game is categorized in one of three ways:
-- Win - More than 75 percent chance of winning
-- Loss - More than 75 percent chance of losing
-- Push - Somewhere in between

With that said, away we go with conference play:

Oct. 6 - Nebraska

There has perhaps been no bigger game for Mizzou football since the days of Kellen Winslow than this Big 12 North showdown set to take place this October. Whether or not that is a testament to the growth of the program or a sad statement of the team's history, I don't know. Regardless, Faurot Field will be loud and likely inebriated for the de facto North title. Sam Keller and Marlon Lucky hold the keys to keeping the Mizzou offense off the field - which Nebraska fans don't seem to be too worried about. Sorry to burst the Big Red bubble, but the Mizzou offense will be far more effective at home compared to the conservative offense the Huskers saw in Lincoln last year. The teams have traded home wins for four years, and thus it should be the Tigers turn, but its hard turning your back on years of futility and blowing opportunities.
ETS Prediction: Push

Oct. 13 - at Oklahoma

Last season, Oklahoma was the only team that appeared in total control against the Tigers at Faurot Field. However, the Tigers were still in the game late until a roughing the kicker penalty drove a dagger in Mizzou's chances. This season, most pundits have the Tigers marked for a loss in Norman. The shaky quarterback situation at OU (which I heard plenty about during my drive through Oklahoma on the way to Columbia) is a MAJOR advantage for Mizzou, but Oklahoma has the ultimate trump card: Allen Patrick/DeMarco Murray against the MU run defense. This factor, coupled with the Big 12's top secondary, creates mismatches Mizzou may not be able to adjust to. The upset factor is there, but Oklahoma, QB issues aside, is built to beat Missouri.
ETS Prediction: Loss (24-20)

Oct. 20 - Texas Tech

Last season, Mizzou's road win at Texas Tech put the Tigers on the national map, if only for a brief moment until the collapse at Texas A&M. The Tigers stormed Lubbock, crushed souls on Tech's homecoming, made Graham Harrell cry, and introduced Mike Leach to an air raid offense that can actually run the ball. For some reason, I have some skepticism about whether or not Mizzou can put on that kind of show against Tech again this year. Outside of returning Harrell at QB, the Red Raiders have been gutted for the most part, but the system offense never seems to have problems producing. However, Mizzou has played the Red Raiders extremely well at home in their two meetings since 1999 - destroying Tech 62-31 on a "Brad Smith is the Hammer of Thor" game back in 2003 and a solid defensive effort in a 34-7 win in 1999. I have Mizzou marked down for a win, but this game screams "home upset potential" to me.
ETS Prediction: Win (41-31)

Oct. 27 - Iowa State

ETS is going to go ahead and pretend like last year never happened. The great travesty in Ames last year made a man whose last name is "Kock" look like Adrian Peterson and officially handed the Tigers the "fall apart down the stretch" status card for the next nine months. Not to mention, the loss came just days after Mike Alden's announcement of Gary Pinkel's contract extension. Nothing inspires confidence in your coach after an extension like a late-season road loss in Ames, right? Iowa State seems like they have a lot of parts returning, as well as a future star at coach in Gene Chizik, but I'm going to lock this one in as a win. There's NO chance Iowa State pulls the same upset again, especially against a motivated (read: pissed off) Mizzou at home.
ETS Prediction: Win (38-10)

Nov. 3 - at Colorado

Everything about this game screams "Gary Pinkel late-season road game collapse" (trademark ETS). It seems like most of America is overlooking Colorado, a team that was much better than its record last year. Bernard Jackson moves from QB to "Slash" a la Kordell Stewart of Buffalo years of old, and Dan Hawkins has shiny new toys to play with at quarterback (JuCo transfer Nick Nelson and Hawkins' son Cody) as well as new gadget plays stemming from Jackson's move away from center. The Colorado defense is somewhat confounding, having lost six seniors but added multiple JuCo transfers, but that said, Mizzou didn't exactly have that much trouble with Colorado's D in 2006. Mizzou is the better team, but with the game on the road late in the season, the Pinkel factor absolutely scares me to death.
ETS Prediction: Push

Nov. 10 - Texas A&M

Of nearly every game on the college football schedule, I've yet to find one harder to predict than Mizzou-Texas A&M. The Texas A&M offense is built to exploit the Missouri defense. The Missouri offense can do likewise to the Aggies. The teams' styles are so drastically different that you simply can not predict which style will win until the pace of the game has been dictated. Let me put it this way - whichever team takes a two-possession lead first will win. If Mizzou gets up on the Ags by 10-14, Texas A&M will have to go to the air with an inexperienced receiving corps and a jumpy Stephen McGee in the pocket. If Texas A&M goes up 10-14, Mizzou gets hammered by McGee, J-Train Jorvorskie Lane and Mike Goodson. The question is: Who gets that lead?
ETS Prediction: Push

Nov. 17 - at Kansas State

To see my thoughts about this road game against Kansas State, you can just refer back to my thoughts about the Colorado game. Once again, any late season road game under a certain visor-wearing head coach is never safe. Mizzou fans seem to be overlooking the Wildcats after what transpired in 2006, with Mizzou dismantling K-State at Faurot to welcome the Tigers back into the win column against Kansas State for the first time since 1992. Let's recap: one win after 14 consecutive years of losses, and I shouldn't be worried? One Missouri poster pegged Josh Freeman, who gained infamy for his weight problems entering camp, as "the next Jared Lorenzen, only not as accurate." As far as I can tell, Lorenzen never upset Texas in Manhattan as a true freshman. Mizzou is definitely vulnerable here - especially in the trap game scenario between a tough matchup with Texas A&M behind them and the Border War with Kansas looming.
ETS Prediction: Push

Nov. 24 - Kansas (in Kansas City)

KU did Mizzou a great favor by agreeing to move the Border War to Kansas City for the next two years, allowing the Tigers avoid another trip to Lawrence, a place where Mizzou frustratingly just can't seem to find a way to win. The one Jayhawk weapon that scared me in 2006 - RB Jon Cornish - is no longer at Kansas. The three to thirteen Mizzou weapons that scared Kansas in 2006 return, sans only Brad Ekwerekwu. Once again, this game could be prone to a late-season collaspe, but I can't see Mizzou dropping this game. The dominating win last year restored the Tigers' confidence against KU, and with a potential trip to the Big 12 title game on the line, I think Missouri finds a way to remain focused despite decades of falling short when it matters.
ETS Prediction: Win (38-20)

Preview Recap
-- Record (Win-Loss-Push): 7-1-4
-- Therefore, at worst: 7-5
-- And, at best: 11-1
-- Splitting the push games puts Mizzou at 9-3, around where most pundits have the Tigers for 2007
-- Cause for concern: All four push games are in conference, meaning Mizzou could be anywhere from 3-5 to 7-1 in Big 12 play.

Coming tomorrow: Big 12 Overview, Predictions and Standings

All helmet images courtesy the Helmet Project at NationalChamps.net.

Season Preview: Non-conference

With one week officially left until the season opener against Illinois, I figured it's time to break out the summarized season preview.

Each game is categorized in one of three ways:
-- Win - More than 75 percent chance of winning
-- Loss - More than 75 percent chance of losing
-- Push - Somewhere in between

With that said, away we go:

Sept. 1 - Illinois (in St. Louis)

In 2006, Mizzou opened the season at home against Murray State. In 2007, there's no margin for error in the opener, especially under a national TV spotlight at a neutral site. The Illini are 8-38 over the last four seasons, yet they remain one of the Big Ten's biggest enigmas. Ron Zook has lit up the recruiting trail in Champaign, pulling in big time WR Arrelious Benn and somehow selling a program that has gone 4-19 under his tenure. However, the addition of Benn will be a moot point if sophomore QB Juice Williams does not find a way to distribute the ball more effectively. Williams completed under 40 percent of his passes in 2006, throwing for nine TD and nine INT. Defensively, the Illini boast an underrated set of linebackers and a defense that can best be described as "improving." That said, "improving" doesn't exactly equate to the ability to slow Chase Daniel and Mizzou's high-flying offense.
ETS Prediction: Win (38-21)

Sept. 8 - at Ole Miss

Last year, when the Rebels visited Columbia, each team was searching for an identity. A convincing win by Missouri established Chase Daniel as a bona fide leader and galvanized the Tiger offense, whereas a dismal performance by the Ole Miss offense created a slippery slope leading to a 4-8 record and a crisis at quarterback. Last season, Brent Schaeffer, formerly of Tennessee, transferred in from the College of the Sequoias and inherited the starting job without any competition. This season, Schaeffer is moving to WR and the reins of the offense appear to be falling to Seth Adams. Granted, any road game for Mizzou, much less one in the Southeastern Conference, is never a given. But with the Ole Miss offense in panic mode and a defense that will sorely miss NFL first-rounder Patrick Willis, Mizzou should be able to walk out of The Grove 2-0. The one thing that can change this game, however, is the consistent attack of RB BenJarvus Green-Ellis (ETS' vote for "best name in the non-conference schedule"). Green-Ellis got shut down by Mizzou last year, but if Ole Miss forces a few turnovers and can win the possession battle with the running game, things could get very interesting very quickly.
ETS Prediction: Win (31-13)

Sept. 15 - Western Michigan

After opening with two big name schools from BCS power conferences, it would be easy to overlook the steadily improving Broncos in the Faurot Field season opener. After winning only one game two seasons ago, Bill Cubit's program has become a player in the MAC, winning 15 games over the past two seasons and nearly pulling off a comeback win against Cincinnati in the International Bowl last January. Nearly all of Western Michigan's skill positions are rife with competition, competition that could either solidfy or destroy stability at each spot, depending on how the young Broncos adapt and adjust to the pressure. The Bronco defense should remain strong and pose a threat in turnover margin, but as long as the Tigers protect the football, Mizzou should appease the home crowd with a win in the home opener.
ETS Prediction: Win (41-17)

Sept. 22 - Illinois State

Admittedly, my knowledge of FCS teams is not high. However, Illinois State should make some noise on the level formerly known as Division 1-AA, entering the preseasn ranked No. 8 in the division. According to camp reports, coach Denver Johnson seems genuinely excited about the Redbird defense, a defense that, like most FCS schools, can often be extremely athletic but undersized. The real intrigue with this game will be how Gary Pinkel divides playing time. Does he risk the first team offense and defense to injury, hoping to have them prepared for the Nebraska game in early October? Or do players like Chase Patton, Gilbert Moye and Derrick Washington get their chance to shine at the expense of preparing the first teams for Big 12 play?
ETS Prediction: Win (52-14)

All helmet images courtesy the Helmet Project at NationalChamps.net.