Season Preview: Big 12 games

With the season opener against Illinois rapidly approaching, I figured it's time to break out the summarized season preview.

Each game is categorized in one of three ways:
-- Win - More than 75 percent chance of winning
-- Loss - More than 75 percent chance of losing
-- Push - Somewhere in between

With that said, away we go with conference play:

Oct. 6 - Nebraska

There has perhaps been no bigger game for Mizzou football since the days of Kellen Winslow than this Big 12 North showdown set to take place this October. Whether or not that is a testament to the growth of the program or a sad statement of the team's history, I don't know. Regardless, Faurot Field will be loud and likely inebriated for the de facto North title. Sam Keller and Marlon Lucky hold the keys to keeping the Mizzou offense off the field - which Nebraska fans don't seem to be too worried about. Sorry to burst the Big Red bubble, but the Mizzou offense will be far more effective at home compared to the conservative offense the Huskers saw in Lincoln last year. The teams have traded home wins for four years, and thus it should be the Tigers turn, but its hard turning your back on years of futility and blowing opportunities.
ETS Prediction: Push

Oct. 13 - at Oklahoma

Last season, Oklahoma was the only team that appeared in total control against the Tigers at Faurot Field. However, the Tigers were still in the game late until a roughing the kicker penalty drove a dagger in Mizzou's chances. This season, most pundits have the Tigers marked for a loss in Norman. The shaky quarterback situation at OU (which I heard plenty about during my drive through Oklahoma on the way to Columbia) is a MAJOR advantage for Mizzou, but Oklahoma has the ultimate trump card: Allen Patrick/DeMarco Murray against the MU run defense. This factor, coupled with the Big 12's top secondary, creates mismatches Mizzou may not be able to adjust to. The upset factor is there, but Oklahoma, QB issues aside, is built to beat Missouri.
ETS Prediction: Loss (24-20)

Oct. 20 - Texas Tech

Last season, Mizzou's road win at Texas Tech put the Tigers on the national map, if only for a brief moment until the collapse at Texas A&M. The Tigers stormed Lubbock, crushed souls on Tech's homecoming, made Graham Harrell cry, and introduced Mike Leach to an air raid offense that can actually run the ball. For some reason, I have some skepticism about whether or not Mizzou can put on that kind of show against Tech again this year. Outside of returning Harrell at QB, the Red Raiders have been gutted for the most part, but the system offense never seems to have problems producing. However, Mizzou has played the Red Raiders extremely well at home in their two meetings since 1999 - destroying Tech 62-31 on a "Brad Smith is the Hammer of Thor" game back in 2003 and a solid defensive effort in a 34-7 win in 1999. I have Mizzou marked down for a win, but this game screams "home upset potential" to me.
ETS Prediction: Win (41-31)

Oct. 27 - Iowa State

ETS is going to go ahead and pretend like last year never happened. The great travesty in Ames last year made a man whose last name is "Kock" look like Adrian Peterson and officially handed the Tigers the "fall apart down the stretch" status card for the next nine months. Not to mention, the loss came just days after Mike Alden's announcement of Gary Pinkel's contract extension. Nothing inspires confidence in your coach after an extension like a late-season road loss in Ames, right? Iowa State seems like they have a lot of parts returning, as well as a future star at coach in Gene Chizik, but I'm going to lock this one in as a win. There's NO chance Iowa State pulls the same upset again, especially against a motivated (read: pissed off) Mizzou at home.
ETS Prediction: Win (38-10)

Nov. 3 - at Colorado

Everything about this game screams "Gary Pinkel late-season road game collapse" (trademark ETS). It seems like most of America is overlooking Colorado, a team that was much better than its record last year. Bernard Jackson moves from QB to "Slash" a la Kordell Stewart of Buffalo years of old, and Dan Hawkins has shiny new toys to play with at quarterback (JuCo transfer Nick Nelson and Hawkins' son Cody) as well as new gadget plays stemming from Jackson's move away from center. The Colorado defense is somewhat confounding, having lost six seniors but added multiple JuCo transfers, but that said, Mizzou didn't exactly have that much trouble with Colorado's D in 2006. Mizzou is the better team, but with the game on the road late in the season, the Pinkel factor absolutely scares me to death.
ETS Prediction: Push

Nov. 10 - Texas A&M

Of nearly every game on the college football schedule, I've yet to find one harder to predict than Mizzou-Texas A&M. The Texas A&M offense is built to exploit the Missouri defense. The Missouri offense can do likewise to the Aggies. The teams' styles are so drastically different that you simply can not predict which style will win until the pace of the game has been dictated. Let me put it this way - whichever team takes a two-possession lead first will win. If Mizzou gets up on the Ags by 10-14, Texas A&M will have to go to the air with an inexperienced receiving corps and a jumpy Stephen McGee in the pocket. If Texas A&M goes up 10-14, Mizzou gets hammered by McGee, J-Train Jorvorskie Lane and Mike Goodson. The question is: Who gets that lead?
ETS Prediction: Push

Nov. 17 - at Kansas State

To see my thoughts about this road game against Kansas State, you can just refer back to my thoughts about the Colorado game. Once again, any late season road game under a certain visor-wearing head coach is never safe. Mizzou fans seem to be overlooking the Wildcats after what transpired in 2006, with Mizzou dismantling K-State at Faurot to welcome the Tigers back into the win column against Kansas State for the first time since 1992. Let's recap: one win after 14 consecutive years of losses, and I shouldn't be worried? One Missouri poster pegged Josh Freeman, who gained infamy for his weight problems entering camp, as "the next Jared Lorenzen, only not as accurate." As far as I can tell, Lorenzen never upset Texas in Manhattan as a true freshman. Mizzou is definitely vulnerable here - especially in the trap game scenario between a tough matchup with Texas A&M behind them and the Border War with Kansas looming.
ETS Prediction: Push

Nov. 24 - Kansas (in Kansas City)

KU did Mizzou a great favor by agreeing to move the Border War to Kansas City for the next two years, allowing the Tigers avoid another trip to Lawrence, a place where Mizzou frustratingly just can't seem to find a way to win. The one Jayhawk weapon that scared me in 2006 - RB Jon Cornish - is no longer at Kansas. The three to thirteen Mizzou weapons that scared Kansas in 2006 return, sans only Brad Ekwerekwu. Once again, this game could be prone to a late-season collaspe, but I can't see Mizzou dropping this game. The dominating win last year restored the Tigers' confidence against KU, and with a potential trip to the Big 12 title game on the line, I think Missouri finds a way to remain focused despite decades of falling short when it matters.
ETS Prediction: Win (38-20)

Preview Recap
-- Record (Win-Loss-Push): 7-1-4
-- Therefore, at worst: 7-5
-- And, at best: 11-1
-- Splitting the push games puts Mizzou at 9-3, around where most pundits have the Tigers for 2007
-- Cause for concern: All four push games are in conference, meaning Mizzou could be anywhere from 3-5 to 7-1 in Big 12 play.

Coming tomorrow: Big 12 Overview, Predictions and Standings

All helmet images courtesy the Helmet Project at NationalChamps.net.